A pivotal day – I’m showing a chart of the 10 year treasury instead of the Mortgage Backed Securities, MBS are what drive our rates, but they have a solid correlation to the treasuries, the 10 year in particular. All of the curved lines you see are Daily Moving Averages, the most important today is the 50 DMA, the black line. You can see it intersects with the 10 year treasury at 2.02. There is a 10 year auction today and 2.02 is pivotal, the 10 year is currently at 2.00. You can see that past week rates have been on the climb. If the auction results are poor, rates have a lot of move to run up as the 100 DMA is the next support line and 2.22 are far above current levels. If the yields rise then it would take mortgage rates up with them. Rates will still be fantastic, they just won’t be quite as low. Conversely as you see over the last 6 months the 50 DMA has been rarely traded above it, so a good auction could see a reversal in the recent rate climb. If you are happy where things are it couldn’t hurt to lock, but if you can stomach a little volatility you could be handsomely rewarded.
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